Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 2.539220 2.974003 3.456750 4.031936 4.698064 5.444715 6.344598
2025-11-30 1.893482 2.481349 3.205683 4.161212 5.385916 6.900155 8.911621
2025-12-07 1.434590 2.064259 2.909932 4.122883 5.811404 8.071261 11.316818
2025-12-14 1.131251 1.763197 2.676485 4.082420 6.180088 9.179180 13.774145
2025-12-21 0.927310 1.550335 2.510302 4.081813 6.571258 10.338180 16.437556
2025-12-28 0.843378 1.498952 2.566901 4.410679 7.485884 12.370629 20.661609
2026-01-04 0.732554 1.378713 2.487431 4.498554 8.016573 13.860075 24.216445
2026-01-11 0.642990 1.276313 2.416582 4.581463 8.537979 15.384201 28.005633
2026-01-18 0.560614 1.170427 2.319479 4.596830 8.933490 16.729936 31.641098
2026-01-25 0.485795 1.064462 2.203238 4.554425 9.209516 17.886129 35.064909
2026-02-01 0.400601 0.921126 1.990676 4.290222 9.021490 18.158868 36.874420
2026-02-08 0.343228 0.825843 1.858520 4.164577 9.082413 18.898817 39.647802
2026-02-15 0.298544 0.752370 1.764331 4.112718 9.305620 20.021568 43.399528
2026-02-22 0.276584 0.727913 1.773817 4.289442 10.042346 22.284732 49.783436
2026-03-01 0.243783 0.670635 1.699384 4.265349 10.336489 23.663389 54.490349
2026-03-08 0.214911 0.617346 1.625021 4.228773 10.595679 24.996959 59.264936
2026-03-15 0.192034 0.575114 1.570201 4.229935 10.941716 26.562685 64.745980
2026-03-22 0.188094 0.584199 1.646563 4.570852 12.154249 30.244591 75.501313
2026-03-29 0.173005 0.558373 1.627326 4.662007 12.759635 32.580862 83.381114
2026-04-05 0.159302 0.533819 1.607335 4.747875 13.363338 34.984486 91.706784
2026-04-12 0.144540 0.502902 1.564335 4.763803 13.785786 36.993480 99.300443
2026-04-19 0.129523 0.467934 1.503626 4.719935 14.040808 38.611833 106.103773
2026-04-26 0.109618 0.412294 1.371555 4.446543 13.620364 38.439294 108.279089